Are the US and China Headed For a Cold War?
Posted February 15, 2023 by: Admin
As tensions continue to escalate between the United States and China, experts warn that a “full-on conflict” may be imminent. While the modern Cold War differs from the US-Soviet Union standoff of the 20th century, recent events have caused tensions to soar.
Kervin Aucoin, a 15-year military veteran and owner of private intelligence company Aucoin Analytics, suggests that while the US and China are already in a Cold War, it is much different from the Cold War with the Soviet Union. While Russia attempted to gain power and influence through espionage, China is an economic superpower that uses forms of espionage to gain an economic advantage.
China’s potential for espionage against the US has gained increasing attention, especially after a suspected Chinese spy balloon was shot down in South Carolina on February 4. According to Mr. Aucoin, the balloon incident is just the tip of the iceberg. China is likely attempting to gain an edge in myriad ways, such as infiltrating American universities and political campaigns.
Moreover, US officials assess that Beijing’s timeline for reunification with Taiwan could mean an invasion by 2025, something that is particularly concerning. China has made it clear that its intention is to invade Taiwan in order to install a pro-Xi regime on the tiny island, a move that could take the US and China from a Cold War to a full-on conflict.
The recent balloon incident sent tensions soaring and caused the top US diplomat, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, to cancel high-level talks in Beijing. China criticized the US for its “overreaction” and claims that the balloon was a surveillance balloon, not a spy balloon.
That could lead to a full-scale conflict
However, tensions between the US and China are not limited to spy balloons. The two countries regularly lock horns over Taiwan and the South China Sea, and Mr. Aucoin warns that these issues could lead to a full-scale war. He suggests that negotiations with China are not plausible unless the United States wants to abandon all of its Indo-Pacific allies.
US and Chinese aircraft routinely interact in the airspace surrounding the South China Sea, and this is where an international incident could lead to an unexpected conflict. While US pilots are trained to observe and not engage Chinese or Russian military equipment, mistakes happen, and the unintended consequences of those mistakes can lead to disaster. This was nearly the case on December 21 last year when a Chinese J-11 fighter jet flew within 20 feet of the nose of a US RC-135 Rivet Joint, a reconnaissance aircraft that holds about 30 people.
China lays claim to huge swathes of the South China Sea, claims which its neighbors and the US do not recognize. With the US shooting down new objects in its airspace – the origin of which is yet to be established – the potential for “mistakes” in other areas of the world could be rising.
In conclusion, the United States and China appear to be on a collision course that could lead to a full-scale conflict. As both sides continue to pursue their respective interests and agendas, the potential for unintended consequences and mistakes increases. While negotiations and diplomatic efforts remain crucial, it remains to be seen whether they will be enough to prevent a full-on conflict between these two superpowers.
